A Reuters poll shows 70 of 73 economists expect the ECB to leave the deposit rate unchanged on October 29, with a 25bp hike in December as the consensus next step.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to pause at its October 29 meeting, keeping the deposit rate at 2.50%, according to a Reuters survey conducted October 5–8. Of the 73 economists polled, 70 forecast a hold in October, while 64 expect a 25bp increase in December. A 58% majority sees the terminal deposit rate at 2.75%.

The ECB has already raised rates twice this year as energy prices driven by Middle East tensions pushed inflation above the 2% target. Economists now expect Q4 inflation to average 3.7%, up from 3.3% in Q3, with annual inflation forecast at 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.